Hi Starsky,
Yes I can understand this and overthinking can be a really killer to improving and confidence in your game. Usually it depends on the opponent and if they have a certain strength for example a strong forehand then I would think about keeping it in their backhand between points.
Its fine to decide once you see the type of serve as well because thag may dictate the kind of return you need to do, so it’s not ideal to pre-decide your return in terms of shot type too early otherwise you can get in trouble, so focus on direction and make your decisions early once the opponent has hit their shot to avoid indecision.
I think the best way is to try to simplify things as much as possible and stick to the basics well, if you can play solid returns on the table you at least give yourself a chanve of working your way into the rally more often.
